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The global economy is showing signs of a small recovery and 2010 may be a very good year for the global economy and sheer instinct tells me that both China and India will produce 'surprise' results in 2010 and we may well head for a 8% plus growth in the current year and 9% plus in 2011. The challenges are many and as I have mentioned earlier the distribution of power both political and economic between the West and the East will have greater balance and sadly there is a sense of denial and this reflects on the pressure points developing on the social and economic scene. The changes are dramatic as the GDP in India will grow at 4-5% higher than the GDP in the West and taking into account the saving rate of 35-40% and an upward migration of 30-40 million into the middle class every year we may be looking at a middle class market in excess of 600 million in the next decade and this exceeds the population of the USA and the Western World. The sensible and mature view is that in a global economy every country benefits from each other and look at the cross investments being made today by the Developed world and India making huge investments in acquiring assets abroad. We must always keep the big picture in mind, try to understand the implications of change and avoid excessive arrogance as we achieve greater relevance in both the political and economic field. The challenges are many and sit back and think of a 9% GDP growth over the next five years and its implications for the future and you will see the explosion of demand in every field of activity and I would be very surprised if the demand does not continue to outstrip supply in every field of activity over the next few decades and along with China we will be the biggest market for the global community over the next few decades.

We have a favorable demographic ratio and for our youngsters the opportunities which exist today are limitless and we must take full advantage of the benefits of globalization and the reality is that no country today can benefit by adopting a 'protective' policy. The shift in political power has already taken place in many fields and economic and social change will follow in rapid succession.

The security checks which include a full body scan is not the final answer and at some stage we will have to travel without baggage, leave our clothes and shoes at the airport and change into security sterile clothes for the flight and fool proof security! This may sound rather comical but this will happen as terrorism gets sophisticated by the day and The number of suicide bombers increase by the day. The effects during the current chaos In the global economy will be devastating on the USA,UK and many countries in Europe depending on tourist revenues and racial profiling which is inevitable will lead to other complications. The war in Iraq and Afghanistan is not going well and the Middle East talks have failed and we need a miracle to achieve peace in any form.

The USA, UK and many countries gave sanctuary on 'political grounds' to terrorists and criminal elements and attitudes only changed after 9/11 and profiling certain countries may not be the only solution as many of the terrorists may well be citizens of the USA, UK as we have experienced in recent times and tightening visa norms was essential for all visitors from the USA, UK and in regard to Bangladesh and the porous Eastern border some drastic measures are necessary. Security will be the number 1 issue for the global society and the solution does not rest with superior weapons and double standards of political morality.


The violence in Australia is unfortunate but is inbred into the system as they have followed a 'racial' policy for many years and all you have to do is Google and read the articles on the treatment meted out to the Aborigines and the poor 'child migrants' snatched from their families and sent from the United Kingdom. Prime Minister Kevin Rudd is a remarkable man and it takes great courage to acknowledge the brutality and pain of the past and his two speeches on 13/2/08 and 16/11/09 give a graphic account with the treatment meted out to the Aborigines and the poor children and the PM talks of profound grief, suffering and loss of a 'stolen generation'. Australia followed a 'white only' policy for many years but in recent years huge immigration from China and India have changed the demographic pattern and the productivity and the success of the community is being resented. The Australian government is embarrassed and is in 'denial' as over 500 incidents have taken place and these cannot be treated as a mere law and order issue. Study the Australian political structure and the thinking of the main opposition party and the attempts of PM Kevin Rudd to change the system and hopefully both sides will exercise restraint and try to arrive at a peaceful solution. We cannot declare war on the past and wipe out the injustice of the past by violent means and we have experienced this in India for over three hundred years of Colonial rule and systematic plunder of our resource base and it speaks well for our political leaders after independence and the public attitude shaped by the thoughts of Mahatma Gandhi that we shed the cruel memories of the past, lived in the present with a great deal of deprivation and planned for a self reliant future.
Security is the major issue but the balancing of power between the West and the East is equally important and the reality of the situation is evident in the WTO and Climate control talks and the G 20 summit on global affairs and hopefully the change will be peaceful and mutually beneficial.
 
 
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